Assigning Blame in Boston

Some Boston fans are asking me if I worry about the Yanks blowing a 7-0 lead in the 8th inning for the first time since 1954. Frankly, no.

Now looking at the Red Sox, its time to start issuing blame and whether or not people should be brought back.

Tito: Terry Francona needs to go. As the team started crumbling in September, a coaching staff and its players needs to look to its manager to find a way to win. Instead, Terry sent out Wakefield for 4 starts, Weiland for 3 starts, and Andrew Miller for 2. Meanwhile the team's best option to start any of these games was Alfredo Aceves, who was used primarily in games in which the Red Sox were already losing and looking to keep it close. Getting ahead of a team early and then piling runs on against the weaker relievers was the Sox strength this season, (32-17 in blowout games, similar to the Yankees 34-13). Continually allowing yourself to start behind and then try to cobble comebacks against a team's core relief squad and closers is a recipe for disaster.

Outside of handling the pitching staff, his lineup choices down the stretch were simply baffling. A manager cannot cannot CANNOT bat a guy with only 39 career at bats behind your team's best hitter. Buck Showalter and the Oriole coaching staff prepped themselves for Lavarnway for his second career start, and chose to intentionally walk Adrian Gonzalez 3 times in favor of pitching to the rookie catcher. In turn, he went 0-5 and stockpiled a -.275 Win Probability Added for the game (basically you could attribute 28% of the loss directly on him).

Finally, Carl Crawford was a star, and brought in to spark the top of the lineup, steal bases, and hit doubles off the Green Monster. Seven days into the season, he was demoted to 7th in the lineup and was allowed to languish in a season-long slump from which he would never recover. The Yankees had a player like that, his name was Curtis Granderson. Rather than abandoning the project in the 8th hole, the Yankees gave him the support he needed to refine his swing against left-handed pitching and now is a favorite for the AL MVP.

Theo: See reasoning above. Terry didn't have many options to go with from a pitching standpoint, and that was thanks to Theo a) not acquiring Doug Fister, Bruce Chen, or any other mediocre pitcher from June-September, and b) saddling the team with John Lackey and Dice-K in the first place. By acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, he essentially forced Youklis to play out of position and cause the injuries that kept him out of the lineup in September. Not to mention the Crawford/Jenks/Drew/Scutaro contracts. Better for him to start off fresh in Chicago and pretend like he didn't torpedo this organization into the ground.

Crawford: For $17m a season, according to fangraphs.com he actually cost the team 2.4 wins this season, 5th worst in baseball. He took 14 runs off the scoreboard according to his RE24, and despite playing in the smallest left field in baseball, he managed to put up a defensive year only slightly better than Manny's 2003 campaign. Translation: He had a worse year than Brett Gardner at the plate, but at least Brett Gardner can catch the ball. Fitting the season ended on a ball he should've caught. He needs to go, but odds are he's stuck in Boston for the duration of that contract.

Curt Young: No pitching coach should keep his job after that kind of a month.

Unfortunately I think the Sox will be back next year. What's worse is that they'll bid up the price of CC Sabathia for the Yankees to repay us for the Carl Crawford deal. They'll sign C.J Wilson out of free agency and pick up a RH bat to man RF to give the lineup some depth against LHP and the prognosticators at ESPN will once again anoint them to be the favorites to win it all next season.

I can't wait.

Admiration for Papi, Laughs at Crawford, and Aviles' Language

After the two games worth of heckling on Saturday and the late Sunday game, here's my wrapup:

Ortiz: I'm sorry, but I like David. He's always smiling, and chatting with nearby fans in the on-deck circle. He gave a pair of batting gloves to a kid wearing all Yankees attire. Some girls were shouting in Spanish toward him and he turned around and flashed a big smile and made motion to the field saying "Ladies please, this is a big at bat, I'll get you back later". He may have inherited the mantle from Manny for boo birds across the stadium when he steps into the box, but he's a class act in my book. I killed him with kindness. 0-10 in the two games.

Pedroia: I can't resist yelling at him, but he always seems to shrug me off and excel on the field. Sections 22 and 24 gave him a nice rendition of "Baby baby" after we wondered allowed if he was really Justin Bieber. 4-10 in the two games, but no XBH or RBI.

J.D Drew: A surprise visit from my old pal J.D! J.D "Nancy" Drew got a rousing call to solve the mystery of where he's been all season. After Nancy went 1-5 in the game, dropping his average to .219, he was lifted for Darnell McDonald. Great signing Theo.

Mike Aviles: I didn't pick on Aviles, but someone a few rows away was riding him in Spanish the whole game. Apparently it got to him because after Aviles flew out in the 13th, he turned before going into the clubhouse and said to the guy "You're still a piece of shit." First time I've ever heard a player curse out a fan (I was cursed out by Ozzie Guillen last season for telling him to put a uniform on). 

Lars Anderson: "62! Who are you!" 0-2 with 1 K. 8 pitches seen.

Carl Crawford: The guy has had a hard year. I read his blog on ESPN, I'm aware of his struggles. So why not highlight them for the $170m bust. Saturday after his 2 run error he was irked by calls of "Gold Glove", and then Sunday night he was "Fan Favorite". 2-11, 1 CS, 1 E.

Meaningless games in the Bronx that Joe treated as such (not pinch hitting for Romine with the bases loaded with A-Rod, Martin, Jeter, Jones, Chavez available. What he should've done though was pinch hit A-Rod for Romine to get the IBB and then pinch run, allowing Posada to pinch hit for Romine and then catch the 9th. That being said, without Youk and Bucholz, I can't see Boston making any noise in the playoffs even if they make it.

602 vs. DJ3K

So unless you've been living under a rock, or you use this blog as your primary Yankee news source, you undoubtedly know that Mariano notched his record breaking save during yesterday's day game at the stadium in front of a rain delayed makeup crowd announced at 40,045, but looked more like 25,000 fans. 

I'll start by saying that personally, I feel 602 was a much more significant accomplishment than DJ3K, while at the same time, lacked all the suspense and drama that DJ3K had. DJ3K, like any hitting achievements, have a much more powerful air of suspense around them. Each pitch thrown could be the pitch that makes history, as well as the additional suspense as to the nature of the hit. Would history be made with a single or a home run? 

Breaking a save record is remarkably different. For one, the drama is not in the at bat, but rather in the innings leading up to the 9th, and whether or not a save opportunity will present itself. After all, since 2001 Mariano has converted 91% of all save opportunities, and has only blown 1 save when the Yankees are up by 2 runs or more since 2008. And that blown save came in the 8th inning. Let that sink in. Two run lead in the 9th inning has not been coughed up by Mariano since we shut down the old house. 

Naturally, the suspense of the game was not geared toward if he would notch the save, but if he would get the save OPPORTUNITY. Maybe it was the diminished crowds, but I feel that distinction contributed to the muted electricity in the air compared to DJ3K. Everyone in the park simply knew 602 was coming once Swisher grounded into that double play in the 8th.

That being said, I couldn't have been luckier to have been in attendance for both milestones this season, and I can't wait to see Mariano chase after save #700. Many fools in recent years have prognosticated the eventual demise of Mariano Rivera. Everyone in the back of their mind knows that Mariano, like Jeter and Posada, will not play forever, but rather than looking to the future and for replacements to existing legends, I hope the writers and commentators continue to marvel at the true marker of Yankee dominance.

Who's Cliff Lee Again?

As Justin Smoak comes off the DL, I sincerely hope Jack Zduriencik regrets not pulling the trigger on the Montero deal as much as he regrets the spelling of his own name. Anyone with a short memory will remember that we tried to trade Montero for Lee last season, only to get undercut at the deadline by Texas and Smoak. We lost Lee, spit on his wife during the playoffs, and then lost him in free agency to Philadelphia. It will be so sweet to beat Cliff Lee and the Phillies again in the World Series.

Much of Monday, when not cheering Jesus, was spent riding Kyle Hudson. Listed generously at 5-11 and 162 lbs, this small child went 1-5 in his second career game hitting leadoff for the O's. Favorite lines hurled in his direction from myself and others:

"Weren't you in Williamsport last week?"

"Hey Rowengartner! Stick to pitching!"

But speaking of September call-ups, its that time in New York and we saw a handful of them this weekend.

Jesus Montero - To believe the hype, this kid IS the real deal. Originally slotted in as the DH vs. LHP, Montero struggled in his first two outings, notably against two of the leagues premier lefties, Jon Lester and Ricky Romero. A tough measure for any rookie, but what jumped out at me was that now in 5 at bats against RHP, he cranked 2 opposite field blasts. If Jesus shows that kind of effectiveness against righties, he will definitely be in the starting lineup during playoff time. The questions then become, does he catch or stay as the DH? As long as he's DH'ing and hitting righties, Jorge's Yankee career is effectively over.

Scott Proctor - He's back! He's apparently improved his ability to throw strikes since he left (31 pitches, 21 strikes on Monday), but what he's gained in location, he's lost in stuff. Robert Andino's 5th career home run the opposite way was really a black mark on a day where the Yankees really needed innings to cover up a stinker from Garcia.

Aaron Laffey - The Yankees need a left-hander in the pen for the playoffs, and will probably need 2. Unfortunately Laffey just doesn't throw strikes. At age 26, that may come in the future, but for now with his career 1.54 WHIP with lefties hitting .264 off him, he's not ready for David Ortiz.

Playing for the Tie and Getting Burned

I'm going to ignore 8 innings of baseball from last night and focus squarely on the 9th inning. I will also be lifting heavily from Tom Tango's "Win Probability Added" and "Run Expectancy" matrix to illustrate my point. For reference, please visit Fangraphs.com for the WPA from last night, and my RE24 tables are from Chanceis.com (mostly since I couldn't find my copy of "The Book" which also contains these tables).

In the 9th inning, with the Yankees down by 3 runs, the Yankees were immediately returned to life by Jorge Posada. One pitch later, Russell Martin laces a double into the left-center gap giving the Yanks their best opportunity of the night. Brett Gardner, who after seeing the last two pitches travel 435 feet and 399 respectively, opts to take strike one (in standard BG fashion) but is let off the hook in the at bat on an error by Scott Sizemore. Enter Derek Jeter.

At this point in the game, the Yankees have a Win Probability of 35.5% and have an average run expectancy with 1st and 2nd and 0 out to score 1.62 runs in the bottom of the 9th. Jeter receives the sign to bunt, lays it down successfully, and advances the game-tying run into scoring position. Upon completion of the play, the Yankees Win Probability falls to 31.5% and their run expectancy with 2nd and 3rd with 1 out stands at 1.51.

To recap. Girardi called for the bunt, it was executed successfully, and the Yankees saw their odds of winning fall? Why is this?

From the sabermetric view, Girardi made the right call if all he was concerned about was tying the game. With 1st and 2nd with no one out, the Yankees have a 16% chance of scoring 2 runs in the inning (tying the game). In the same situation, they have a 26% chance of scoring more than 2 runs in the inning.

Once Girardi calls for the bunt, the play-state changes to 2nd and 3rd with one out. In this play-state, the Yankees have a 22% chance of scoring 2 runs and tying the game, an improvement in our chances to prolong the game. However, the odds of scoring more than 2 runs and winning the game has fallen from 26% to 18%. The +6% chance to tie is not offset by the -8% chance to win.

From an ordinary baseball perspective (ignoring the math) this should make sense. Sacrifice bunts are best used as a means of scoring necessary runs without the relying on getting a hit, ie bunting the tying run to 3rd with less than 2 outs so you can tie the game on a sacrifice fly.

However, bunting the tying run to second with only one out means you still need to get a hit to win the game. Not only that, a weak single won't even score that runner from second with less than 2 outs, as a runner is not going to tempt getting thrown out at the plate with only one out. By sacrificing the tying run to second base, all the offense has managed to do is give up an out in exchange for a situation that still requires them to get a hit.

Last night, Joe Girardi made hitter who was 3/3 with a walk lay down a bunt to advance the game tying run to second base. This move was only justified by either saying he was worried about Jeter hitting into the double play (which he would never admit out loud), or that all he wanted to do was tie the game to try and win it in extra innings. Next time Joe, don't give up the free out. After all, with only one out, that near grand-slam from Swisher becomes a sacrifice fly to tie the game.

Back from Hiatus, Oakland on Tuesday

Back in action after too long a hiatus. With Oakland coming to town, I'm going to have a quick focus today on what I like to term "Playoff Thank You Notes".

When a division or wild card race comes down to the last few games of the season, its important to reflect back on the season that was and remember exactly which team in their infinite futility put you there. Not only that, but for reasons unknown, you beat up on our rival teams to help lock down the October berth, and for that, your accomplishments should be recognized

Oakland and Minnesota have obviously inspired this analysis, as the Yankees are 26-5 against Oakland since 2008 and the Yankees are 63-20 against the Twins in the Gardenhire era.

Biggest Thank Yous of the last 5 years:

2009 Boston - Baltimore: While the Yankees trounced the league on the way to the World Series, finishing with at least a .500 record against every team in baseball, it was Boston who were able to cruise to an 8 game lead in the wild card over Texas before losing to the Angels in 3. How did they manage this lead? Try a 16-2 record against the hapless Orioles, who played Texas to the tune of 5-5. That's an +8.5 game swing, and 1 free playoff berth.

2010 Yankees - Oakland/Baltimore: Technically this shouldn't count, as this involved two teams, but the Yankees should thank Oakland and Baltimore. While the wild card race was a snoozer down the stretch and the Yankees finishing 6 games up in the WC race over Boston, the Yankees can thank this lead to having a 22-6 record over Oak-imore while the BoSox were 13-14. +8.5 game swing.

2008 Milwaukee - Pitts: This is a tough one as the Mets did also play well against the Pirates, but sometimes the divisions aren't lined up right. In '08, the Brewers were not just carried by C.C down the stretch, but they also pummeled the Pirates to the tune of 14-1 on the season, matched by 4-3 for the Mets. +7 game swing in the wild card. Brewers win WC by 1 game.

2007 Yankees - Cleveland: While this thank-you was quickly rescinded, as the Yankees would lose to the Tribe in the first round of the playoffs, and then the Tribe would 1-up themselves by blowing a 3-1 lead against Boston in the ALCS, the regular season was a very different story. The Yankees, making the playoffs as the Wild Card, finished with a 6 game lead over the Detroit Tigers. The difference? Yanks go 6-0 against Cleveland while Detroit goes 6-12. +6 game swing, with a staggering +12 in the loss column.

2008 Boston - Texas: Yankees were on the wrong end of this match up in 2008. Boston finished 6 games ahead of the Yankees in the Wild Card with the help of the Texas Rangers. Boston finished 9-1 against the Rangers, while the Yanks managed to finish 3-4, a +5.5 game swing. Didn't change the outcome, although who's to say how that season ends if its close (Yankees lost the last game of the season in the 10th inning on a start from Sidney Ponson and Jose Veras on the mound, probably not your lineup when the playoffs are on the line)

2010 Cincinnati - Cubs/Brewers/Astros: Oddly enough, Cincinnati finished 5 games up in the division despite going 6-12 against the 2nd place Cardinals. How did they manage this? Cincy combined for a 33-10 record against their non-Pirate division rivals, while the Cards went 18-27 against the same 3 teams. a colossal +16 game swing.

An added note to this analysis, none of the aforementioned teams won the pennant, and went 13-21 in the playoffs. But this proves something we already know: In October, it doesn't matter how many times you can beat the Orioles.

Friday Night, Run Expectancy, and a Rainy Weekend

I've been trying to come up with an accurate way to describe how frustrating Friday evening was at the Bronx. Jayson Stark of ESPN summed it up nicely this morning:

"The Yankees bounced into six double plays in one game Friday. The Mariners have grounded into five all season. And before you start making snide comments about the Mariners' offense, you should know they've had many more hitters reach first base via a single or a walk (137) than the Yankees (112) this season."

It wasn't even a product of slow runners either, as Jeter grounded into one, and was on base for two of them.

Looking at the Yankees RE24, here's the value destroyed by each of the 6 double plays:

1st inning - A-Rod - 1.01 RE24

3rd inning - Tex - .60 RE24

4th inning - Cano - .87 RE24

5th inning - Jeter - 1.01 RE24

7th inning - Jones - .87 RE24

8th inning - Swisher - .60 RE24

Unlike Win Probability Added, Run Expectancy ignores the current game's score, but is a good neutral indicator of a batter's contribution to the team. A player with a RE24 above 0 on average improves his teams ability to score runs with every at bat, while a player with a negative RE24 lowered his team's chances at scoring. A-Rod and Jeter's GIDPs costed more because they had 2 men on base with 1 out, Cano's and Jones' GIDPs came with 0 out, and the Tex/Swisher GIDPs came with 1 out.

In total, the 6 GIDPs cost the Yankees in a run neutral environment of 4.96 runs. While sitting in the stands, it felt like a heck of a lot more, especially given Matt Harrison's total inability to throw strikes (104 Pitches, 59 for strikes), but it still ended up being the difference in the game as NYY only lost 5-3. No pie for Russell yet.

I was away the rest of the weekend so I thankfully I never got tempted to go to either of the games Saturday and Sunday as they were played in particularly vicious weather. Both were great wins and its nice to see the Texas monkey get lifted off our backs early in the season, but with our next series against Tex coming in May, we will never see Josh Hamilton against the Yankees this season. Whether or not that comes into play in October is far too away to even start considering.

Tuesday we play just our 4th away game of the year, and while I won't admit that our series in Fenway should be an indicator for our team's road prowess this year, our Home record of 8-3 puts us on pace to win 59 home games this year, (NYY record is 65 home wins in 1961), so not a bad start to the season.

Finally, for you reference, here's the Yankees RE24 for the season so far. Brett Gardner at -8.34 RE24 is trumped by only one player, Phil Hughes, who has a -9.29 RE24 on the season. Brett Gardner is 2nd worst, behind Carl Crawford at -9.45 RE24, and Hughes is 6th worst, behind John Lackey at -10.31 RE24. Seeing him bumped to 9th was a good sign and will hopefully pull him out of his slump, but I still wouldn't mind seeing more playing time going to Andruw Jones.