Playing for the Tie and Getting Burned

I'm going to ignore 8 innings of baseball from last night and focus squarely on the 9th inning. I will also be lifting heavily from Tom Tango's "Win Probability Added" and "Run Expectancy" matrix to illustrate my point. For reference, please visit Fangraphs.com for the WPA from last night, and my RE24 tables are from Chanceis.com (mostly since I couldn't find my copy of "The Book" which also contains these tables).

In the 9th inning, with the Yankees down by 3 runs, the Yankees were immediately returned to life by Jorge Posada. One pitch later, Russell Martin laces a double into the left-center gap giving the Yanks their best opportunity of the night. Brett Gardner, who after seeing the last two pitches travel 435 feet and 399 respectively, opts to take strike one (in standard BG fashion) but is let off the hook in the at bat on an error by Scott Sizemore. Enter Derek Jeter.

At this point in the game, the Yankees have a Win Probability of 35.5% and have an average run expectancy with 1st and 2nd and 0 out to score 1.62 runs in the bottom of the 9th. Jeter receives the sign to bunt, lays it down successfully, and advances the game-tying run into scoring position. Upon completion of the play, the Yankees Win Probability falls to 31.5% and their run expectancy with 2nd and 3rd with 1 out stands at 1.51.

To recap. Girardi called for the bunt, it was executed successfully, and the Yankees saw their odds of winning fall? Why is this?

From the sabermetric view, Girardi made the right call if all he was concerned about was tying the game. With 1st and 2nd with no one out, the Yankees have a 16% chance of scoring 2 runs in the inning (tying the game). In the same situation, they have a 26% chance of scoring more than 2 runs in the inning.

Once Girardi calls for the bunt, the play-state changes to 2nd and 3rd with one out. In this play-state, the Yankees have a 22% chance of scoring 2 runs and tying the game, an improvement in our chances to prolong the game. However, the odds of scoring more than 2 runs and winning the game has fallen from 26% to 18%. The +6% chance to tie is not offset by the -8% chance to win.

From an ordinary baseball perspective (ignoring the math) this should make sense. Sacrifice bunts are best used as a means of scoring necessary runs without the relying on getting a hit, ie bunting the tying run to 3rd with less than 2 outs so you can tie the game on a sacrifice fly.

However, bunting the tying run to second with only one out means you still need to get a hit to win the game. Not only that, a weak single won't even score that runner from second with less than 2 outs, as a runner is not going to tempt getting thrown out at the plate with only one out. By sacrificing the tying run to second base, all the offense has managed to do is give up an out in exchange for a situation that still requires them to get a hit.

Last night, Joe Girardi made hitter who was 3/3 with a walk lay down a bunt to advance the game tying run to second base. This move was only justified by either saying he was worried about Jeter hitting into the double play (which he would never admit out loud), or that all he wanted to do was tie the game to try and win it in extra innings. Next time Joe, don't give up the free out. After all, with only one out, that near grand-slam from Swisher becomes a sacrifice fly to tie the game.

Back from Hiatus, Oakland on Tuesday

Back in action after too long a hiatus. With Oakland coming to town, I'm going to have a quick focus today on what I like to term "Playoff Thank You Notes".

When a division or wild card race comes down to the last few games of the season, its important to reflect back on the season that was and remember exactly which team in their infinite futility put you there. Not only that, but for reasons unknown, you beat up on our rival teams to help lock down the October berth, and for that, your accomplishments should be recognized

Oakland and Minnesota have obviously inspired this analysis, as the Yankees are 26-5 against Oakland since 2008 and the Yankees are 63-20 against the Twins in the Gardenhire era.

Biggest Thank Yous of the last 5 years:

2009 Boston - Baltimore: While the Yankees trounced the league on the way to the World Series, finishing with at least a .500 record against every team in baseball, it was Boston who were able to cruise to an 8 game lead in the wild card over Texas before losing to the Angels in 3. How did they manage this lead? Try a 16-2 record against the hapless Orioles, who played Texas to the tune of 5-5. That's an +8.5 game swing, and 1 free playoff berth.

2010 Yankees - Oakland/Baltimore: Technically this shouldn't count, as this involved two teams, but the Yankees should thank Oakland and Baltimore. While the wild card race was a snoozer down the stretch and the Yankees finishing 6 games up in the WC race over Boston, the Yankees can thank this lead to having a 22-6 record over Oak-imore while the BoSox were 13-14. +8.5 game swing.

2008 Milwaukee - Pitts: This is a tough one as the Mets did also play well against the Pirates, but sometimes the divisions aren't lined up right. In '08, the Brewers were not just carried by C.C down the stretch, but they also pummeled the Pirates to the tune of 14-1 on the season, matched by 4-3 for the Mets. +7 game swing in the wild card. Brewers win WC by 1 game.

2007 Yankees - Cleveland: While this thank-you was quickly rescinded, as the Yankees would lose to the Tribe in the first round of the playoffs, and then the Tribe would 1-up themselves by blowing a 3-1 lead against Boston in the ALCS, the regular season was a very different story. The Yankees, making the playoffs as the Wild Card, finished with a 6 game lead over the Detroit Tigers. The difference? Yanks go 6-0 against Cleveland while Detroit goes 6-12. +6 game swing, with a staggering +12 in the loss column.

2008 Boston - Texas: Yankees were on the wrong end of this match up in 2008. Boston finished 6 games ahead of the Yankees in the Wild Card with the help of the Texas Rangers. Boston finished 9-1 against the Rangers, while the Yanks managed to finish 3-4, a +5.5 game swing. Didn't change the outcome, although who's to say how that season ends if its close (Yankees lost the last game of the season in the 10th inning on a start from Sidney Ponson and Jose Veras on the mound, probably not your lineup when the playoffs are on the line)

2010 Cincinnati - Cubs/Brewers/Astros: Oddly enough, Cincinnati finished 5 games up in the division despite going 6-12 against the 2nd place Cardinals. How did they manage this? Cincy combined for a 33-10 record against their non-Pirate division rivals, while the Cards went 18-27 against the same 3 teams. a colossal +16 game swing.

An added note to this analysis, none of the aforementioned teams won the pennant, and went 13-21 in the playoffs. But this proves something we already know: In October, it doesn't matter how many times you can beat the Orioles.