Enforcing Home-field Advantage and Keeping the Winning Tradition Alive
Showing posts with label Brett Gardner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brett Gardner. Show all posts

Friday, April 15, 2011

4/14 Bal v. NYY - Pie is Served

The mystery surrounding the first walk-off of 2011 is solved, there will be pie for walk-offs.

As it is obstensibly A.J's sworn duty to throw pies, the questions now become:
1) Will the pies stop when A.J. leaves in 2014?
2) Will Jeter ever be pied in the face?

Obviously, only time will tell on these two question, but my guess will be Yes and Yes.

Before the game I mused as to what inning we would see Bartolo this week. At the rate Bartolo is pitching, the talk is that he is moving to the rotation, and honestly he should. Hughes is not April 2009 Chien-Ming Wang bad right now, but his pitching lines look awfully (pun intended) similar to Kei Igawa right now. Wait till Saturday and make sure Freddy Garcia isn't an equally bad train-wreck and then lets make the switch. Send Hughes to the minors, wait till he starts hitting 92-93 on the gun and then call him back.

I really rag on Hughes this morning, because if it weren't for some stellar glove work behind Hughes, this game could've been over much sooner. In the top of the 4th, Mark Reynolds (who hit the 2nd longest home run of the year last year at 481 feet), barely made contact with a ball that tracked Granderson all the way to the wall in center. Can of corn so long as it stayed in the park, but good play nonetheless.

Swisher shocked the world with his play shortly after in the 5th. Hughes already with a man on, gives up an absolute rocket to Brian Roberts that in 2004, is in the 2nd deck. Swisher however makes a jumping catch to snag the ball that was over his head and take away a double (home run if it bounces off his glove) from the speedy Roberts. Saves 1 run, and two pitches later Markakis knocks Phil out of the game.

The way A-Rod is swinging the ball right now, batting .615 over the last 7 days, and the fact that he still had 4 more at bats left in this game made it very clear that this 5 run lead was clearly not enough, so every run saving play in the field or on the mound meant that much more.

The top of the 8th seemed very mismanaged from my perspective. The Yankees, expecting to tie the game with 2nd and 3rd with only 1 out down by 2, looked like they were expecting to tie the game and got Soriano up in the pen. After a Martin ground-out and a Gardner strike out, the game was still 5-4 and the door opened to the pen. 15 seconds after no one emerged from the bullpen, Bartolo lumbered out of the dugout. He looked lost as he glanced at the bullpen and at Girardi a number of times before figuring out that he was actually going to pitch the 8th. Can't help but feel he thought his night was done, and that lapse in concentration caused him to lose his stuff in the 8th. That, or he got hungry.

Once the game was tied thanks to Jorge's 5th home run of the year (7th hit), the game felt like a formality. 7 pitches from Mariano meant we would see him in the 11th, Soriano was still in the pen, A-Rod was coming up soon to get the walk-off (it was Swisher's sac fly that did the deed, but A-Rod's double was the biggest hit of the inning).

Alls well that ends well in New York. Even when it starts with Phil Hughes.

Player Note:

I wrote a detailed piece about Brett Gardner and his inability to swing the bat yesterday. My thanks goes out to Brett for not making me look foolish, as he took 7 pitches for strikes in 5 at bats last night. Why Joe Girardi chose to allow Brett Gardner to hit in the 9th inning with the winning run on second base with Andruw Jones on the bench, I don't know, but with last night's performance, Gardner has the worst RE24 and has so far this season cost the Yankees 7.31 expected runs at the plate. At his current pace, he is tracking to cost the Yankees 107.65 runs this season, or 9.9 Wins. That's the difference between 100 wins and playoff bound or 90 wins and golf bound in October.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

How Good is Brett Gardner's Eye?

I've decided to put some numbers up to back up my feelings about Brett Gardner and his inability to swing the bat at strikes. There may be some stats that you're unfamiliar here, so I've posted the Fangraphs.com Glossary for Plate Discipline, as well as the major league averages below:

O-Swing% is the percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone. Can be referred to as his "Chase Rate"
Z-Swing% is the percentage of pitches swung at inside the strike zone
Swing% is the overall percentage of pitches swung at

O-Contact% is the percentage of pitches swung at and contacted outside the strike zone
Z-Contact % is the percentage of pitches swung at and contacted inside the strike zone
Contact% is the overall percentage of balls when swung at contact was made

F-Strike% is the percentage of first pitch strikes
SwgStr% is the percentage of pitches a batter swings and misses on.

Brett Gardner

On the surface, Brett Gardner looks like a Bobby Abreu protege (without any power). Since 2010, Brett has shown off his great eye for pitches, posting the 2nd lowest chase rate in baseball at 18.1%

His ability to make contact with pitches is also astonishing, as he makes contact with 97.2% with pitches in the strike zone, behind only Juan Pierre and Marco Scutaro. Of the 2789 pitches Brett has seen since the start of 2010, he has only swung and missed at 265 pitches.

Where Brett Gardner lacks is in his ability to swing at pitches inside the strike zone. Over the last two seasons, Brett has swung at a major league low 45.2% of pitches in the strike zone. He owns this record almost 6% (next lowest is Elvis Andrus at 50.9%) and is almost 20% below the league average. Combined with his low chase rates, its only natural also that Brett has the lowest swing rate in MLB at 31.3%, compared to the league average of 45.6%

Here's where things get really interesting. In 2010, Brett Gardner saw 2625 pitches. Of those pitches, 48.3% were in the strike zone, or 1268 strikes. At a 44.7% Z-Swing%, that means last season, Brett Gardner took 701 pitches for strikes. while swinging at 567 strikes. Brett had a Z-Contact% of 97.5%, meaning he only swung and missed at 2.5% of these strikes. That means that after 2625 pitches, Brett only swung and missed at 14 strikes in the strike zone.

Looking at his O-Swing% (Chase Rate) , of the 1357 possible balls thrown to Brett, he swung at 18.2% of them, or 247 pitches. At (1-O-Contact%) he missed 25.2% of these pitches, or 62 times.

In total he swung and missed at 76 pitches in 2010.

Brett Gardner struck out 101 times in 2010. Of these 101K's, 56 were swinging. 56! That means that in 2010, of the 701 pitches Brett took for strikes, 656 of them were for strike 1 or strike 2. Considering he only had 569 PA in 2010, he took 1.16 strikes per plate appearance before taking Strike 3.

But aren't there times where a hitter is trying to "take a pitch"? That is true, most singles hitters don't swing in 3-0 counts, since a walk is just as good. In 2010, Brett ran the count to 3-0 31 times. 8 times he walked on the 4th pitch and hit no balls in play, so we're going to assume for Brett's sake, he took one strike (non-swinging) in the other 23 PA.

To give Brett a further benefit of the doubt, lets say he had the same strategy at 3-1. In 3-1 counts, Brett had 29 BB and 2 H in 84 PAs. Again, assuming he didn't swing at a single pitch at 3-1 other than his 2 hits, Brett took 53 strikes in 3-1 counts.

Therefore, the maximum number of strikes Brett could have taken in 3-0 and 3-1 counts is 76. Lets go back to our 656 non strike 3 strikes and back out the max 76 strikes taken. He still took 580 strikes in 569 plate appearance. Even accounting for strikes taken in 3-0 or 3-1 counts to try to get on base, Brett Gardner takes just over 1 Strike per PA before taking Strike 3.

Pitchers this season sense understand that Brett refuses to swing before 2 strikes and are currently throwing Brett a first pitch strike at a 70.5% rate, up from 56.2% last season. Brett, having only put the ball in play 4 times (1/3, 1 2B, 1 Sac Bunt) has run a 0-1 count 25 times, after which point he is a career .224 hitter, and a .136 hitter this season. If he is to see success in really his 2nd full season in the big leagues, he needs to get his bat off his shoulders and start putting the bat on the ball early in the count, because at the moment, he's giving away 1/3 of the at bat before he even steps into the box, and pitchers have no reason to pitch around him with his weak power stroke and the currently struggling and very double play prone Derek Jeter hitting behind him.