Playing for the Tie and Getting Burned

I'm going to ignore 8 innings of baseball from last night and focus squarely on the 9th inning. I will also be lifting heavily from Tom Tango's "Win Probability Added" and "Run Expectancy" matrix to illustrate my point. For reference, please visit Fangraphs.com for the WPA from last night, and my RE24 tables are from Chanceis.com (mostly since I couldn't find my copy of "The Book" which also contains these tables).

In the 9th inning, with the Yankees down by 3 runs, the Yankees were immediately returned to life by Jorge Posada. One pitch later, Russell Martin laces a double into the left-center gap giving the Yanks their best opportunity of the night. Brett Gardner, who after seeing the last two pitches travel 435 feet and 399 respectively, opts to take strike one (in standard BG fashion) but is let off the hook in the at bat on an error by Scott Sizemore. Enter Derek Jeter.

At this point in the game, the Yankees have a Win Probability of 35.5% and have an average run expectancy with 1st and 2nd and 0 out to score 1.62 runs in the bottom of the 9th. Jeter receives the sign to bunt, lays it down successfully, and advances the game-tying run into scoring position. Upon completion of the play, the Yankees Win Probability falls to 31.5% and their run expectancy with 2nd and 3rd with 1 out stands at 1.51.

To recap. Girardi called for the bunt, it was executed successfully, and the Yankees saw their odds of winning fall? Why is this?

From the sabermetric view, Girardi made the right call if all he was concerned about was tying the game. With 1st and 2nd with no one out, the Yankees have a 16% chance of scoring 2 runs in the inning (tying the game). In the same situation, they have a 26% chance of scoring more than 2 runs in the inning.

Once Girardi calls for the bunt, the play-state changes to 2nd and 3rd with one out. In this play-state, the Yankees have a 22% chance of scoring 2 runs and tying the game, an improvement in our chances to prolong the game. However, the odds of scoring more than 2 runs and winning the game has fallen from 26% to 18%. The +6% chance to tie is not offset by the -8% chance to win.

From an ordinary baseball perspective (ignoring the math) this should make sense. Sacrifice bunts are best used as a means of scoring necessary runs without the relying on getting a hit, ie bunting the tying run to 3rd with less than 2 outs so you can tie the game on a sacrifice fly.

However, bunting the tying run to second with only one out means you still need to get a hit to win the game. Not only that, a weak single won't even score that runner from second with less than 2 outs, as a runner is not going to tempt getting thrown out at the plate with only one out. By sacrificing the tying run to second base, all the offense has managed to do is give up an out in exchange for a situation that still requires them to get a hit.

Last night, Joe Girardi made hitter who was 3/3 with a walk lay down a bunt to advance the game tying run to second base. This move was only justified by either saying he was worried about Jeter hitting into the double play (which he would never admit out loud), or that all he wanted to do was tie the game to try and win it in extra innings. Next time Joe, don't give up the free out. After all, with only one out, that near grand-slam from Swisher becomes a sacrifice fly to tie the game.

Back from Hiatus, Oakland on Tuesday

Back in action after too long a hiatus. With Oakland coming to town, I'm going to have a quick focus today on what I like to term "Playoff Thank You Notes".

When a division or wild card race comes down to the last few games of the season, its important to reflect back on the season that was and remember exactly which team in their infinite futility put you there. Not only that, but for reasons unknown, you beat up on our rival teams to help lock down the October berth, and for that, your accomplishments should be recognized

Oakland and Minnesota have obviously inspired this analysis, as the Yankees are 26-5 against Oakland since 2008 and the Yankees are 63-20 against the Twins in the Gardenhire era.

Biggest Thank Yous of the last 5 years:

2009 Boston - Baltimore: While the Yankees trounced the league on the way to the World Series, finishing with at least a .500 record against every team in baseball, it was Boston who were able to cruise to an 8 game lead in the wild card over Texas before losing to the Angels in 3. How did they manage this lead? Try a 16-2 record against the hapless Orioles, who played Texas to the tune of 5-5. That's an +8.5 game swing, and 1 free playoff berth.

2010 Yankees - Oakland/Baltimore: Technically this shouldn't count, as this involved two teams, but the Yankees should thank Oakland and Baltimore. While the wild card race was a snoozer down the stretch and the Yankees finishing 6 games up in the WC race over Boston, the Yankees can thank this lead to having a 22-6 record over Oak-imore while the BoSox were 13-14. +8.5 game swing.

2008 Milwaukee - Pitts: This is a tough one as the Mets did also play well against the Pirates, but sometimes the divisions aren't lined up right. In '08, the Brewers were not just carried by C.C down the stretch, but they also pummeled the Pirates to the tune of 14-1 on the season, matched by 4-3 for the Mets. +7 game swing in the wild card. Brewers win WC by 1 game.

2007 Yankees - Cleveland: While this thank-you was quickly rescinded, as the Yankees would lose to the Tribe in the first round of the playoffs, and then the Tribe would 1-up themselves by blowing a 3-1 lead against Boston in the ALCS, the regular season was a very different story. The Yankees, making the playoffs as the Wild Card, finished with a 6 game lead over the Detroit Tigers. The difference? Yanks go 6-0 against Cleveland while Detroit goes 6-12. +6 game swing, with a staggering +12 in the loss column.

2008 Boston - Texas: Yankees were on the wrong end of this match up in 2008. Boston finished 6 games ahead of the Yankees in the Wild Card with the help of the Texas Rangers. Boston finished 9-1 against the Rangers, while the Yanks managed to finish 3-4, a +5.5 game swing. Didn't change the outcome, although who's to say how that season ends if its close (Yankees lost the last game of the season in the 10th inning on a start from Sidney Ponson and Jose Veras on the mound, probably not your lineup when the playoffs are on the line)

2010 Cincinnati - Cubs/Brewers/Astros: Oddly enough, Cincinnati finished 5 games up in the division despite going 6-12 against the 2nd place Cardinals. How did they manage this? Cincy combined for a 33-10 record against their non-Pirate division rivals, while the Cards went 18-27 against the same 3 teams. a colossal +16 game swing.

An added note to this analysis, none of the aforementioned teams won the pennant, and went 13-21 in the playoffs. But this proves something we already know: In October, it doesn't matter how many times you can beat the Orioles.

Friday Night, Run Expectancy, and a Rainy Weekend

I've been trying to come up with an accurate way to describe how frustrating Friday evening was at the Bronx. Jayson Stark of ESPN summed it up nicely this morning:

"The Yankees bounced into six double plays in one game Friday. The Mariners have grounded into five all season. And before you start making snide comments about the Mariners' offense, you should know they've had many more hitters reach first base via a single or a walk (137) than the Yankees (112) this season."

It wasn't even a product of slow runners either, as Jeter grounded into one, and was on base for two of them.

Looking at the Yankees RE24, here's the value destroyed by each of the 6 double plays:

1st inning - A-Rod - 1.01 RE24

3rd inning - Tex - .60 RE24

4th inning - Cano - .87 RE24

5th inning - Jeter - 1.01 RE24

7th inning - Jones - .87 RE24

8th inning - Swisher - .60 RE24

Unlike Win Probability Added, Run Expectancy ignores the current game's score, but is a good neutral indicator of a batter's contribution to the team. A player with a RE24 above 0 on average improves his teams ability to score runs with every at bat, while a player with a negative RE24 lowered his team's chances at scoring. A-Rod and Jeter's GIDPs costed more because they had 2 men on base with 1 out, Cano's and Jones' GIDPs came with 0 out, and the Tex/Swisher GIDPs came with 1 out.

In total, the 6 GIDPs cost the Yankees in a run neutral environment of 4.96 runs. While sitting in the stands, it felt like a heck of a lot more, especially given Matt Harrison's total inability to throw strikes (104 Pitches, 59 for strikes), but it still ended up being the difference in the game as NYY only lost 5-3. No pie for Russell yet.

I was away the rest of the weekend so I thankfully I never got tempted to go to either of the games Saturday and Sunday as they were played in particularly vicious weather. Both were great wins and its nice to see the Texas monkey get lifted off our backs early in the season, but with our next series against Tex coming in May, we will never see Josh Hamilton against the Yankees this season. Whether or not that comes into play in October is far too away to even start considering.

Tuesday we play just our 4th away game of the year, and while I won't admit that our series in Fenway should be an indicator for our team's road prowess this year, our Home record of 8-3 puts us on pace to win 59 home games this year, (NYY record is 65 home wins in 1961), so not a bad start to the season.

Finally, for you reference, here's the Yankees RE24 for the season so far. Brett Gardner at -8.34 RE24 is trumped by only one player, Phil Hughes, who has a -9.29 RE24 on the season. Brett Gardner is 2nd worst, behind Carl Crawford at -9.45 RE24, and Hughes is 6th worst, behind John Lackey at -10.31 RE24. Seeing him bumped to 9th was a good sign and will hopefully pull him out of his slump, but I still wouldn't mind seeing more playing time going to Andruw Jones.

4/14 Bal v. NYY - Pie is Served

The mystery surrounding the first walk-off of 2011 is solved, there will be pie for walk-offs.

As it is obstensibly A.J's sworn duty to throw pies, the questions now become:

1) Will the pies stop when A.J. leaves in 2014?

2) Will Jeter ever be pied in the face?

Obviously, only time will tell on these two question, but my guess will be Yes and Yes.

Before the game I mused as to what inning we would see Bartolo this week. At the rate Bartolo is pitching, the talk is that he is moving to the rotation, and honestly he should. Hughes is not April 2009 Chien-Ming Wang bad right now, but his pitching lines look awfully (pun intended) similar to Kei Igawa right now. Wait till Saturday and make sure Freddy Garcia isn't an equally bad train-wreck and then lets make the switch. Send Hughes to the minors, wait till he starts hitting 92-93 on the gun and then call him back.

I really rag on Hughes this morning, because if it weren't for some stellar glove work behind Hughes, this game could've been over much sooner. In the top of the 4th, Mark Reynolds (who hit the 2nd longest home run of the year last year at 481 feet), barely made contact with a ball that tracked Granderson all the way to the wall in center. Can of corn so long as it stayed in the park, but good play nonetheless.

Swisher shocked the world with his play shortly after in the 5th. Hughes already with a man on, gives up an absolute rocket to Brian Roberts that in 2004, is in the 2nd deck. Swisher however makes a jumping catch to snag the ball that was over his head and take away a double (home run if it bounces off his glove) from the speedy Roberts. Saves 1 run, and two pitches later Markakis knocks Phil out of the game.

The way A-Rod is swinging the ball right now, batting .615 over the last 7 days, and the fact that he still had 4 more at bats left in this game made it very clear that this 5 run lead was clearly not enough, so every run saving play in the field or on the mound meant that much more.

The top of the 8th seemed very mismanaged from my perspective. The Yankees, expecting to tie the game with 2nd and 3rd with only 1 out down by 2, looked like they were expecting to tie the game and got Soriano up in the pen. After a Martin ground-out and a Gardner strike out, the game was still 5-4 and the door opened to the pen. 15 seconds after no one emerged from the bullpen, Bartolo lumbered out of the dugout. He looked lost as he glanced at the bullpen and at Girardi a number of times before figuring out that he was actually going to pitch the 8th. Can't help but feel he thought his night was done, and that lapse in concentration caused him to lose his stuff in the 8th. That, or he got hungry.

Once the game was tied thanks to Jorge's 5th home run of the year (7th hit), the game felt like a formality. 7 pitches from Mariano meant we would see him in the 11th, Soriano was still in the pen, A-Rod was coming up soon to get the walk-off (it was Swisher's sac fly that did the deed, but A-Rod's double was the biggest hit of the inning).

Alls well that ends well in New York. Even when it starts with Phil Hughes.

Player Note:

I wrote a detailed piece about Brett Gardner and his inability to swing the bat yesterday. My thanks goes out to Brett for not making me look foolish, as he took 7 pitches for strikes in 5 at bats last night. Why Joe Girardi chose to allow Brett Gardner to hit in the 9th inning with the winning run on second base with Andruw Jones on the bench, I don't know, but with last night's performance, Gardner has the worst RE24 and has so far this season cost the Yankees 7.31 expected runs at the plate. At his current pace, he is tracking to cost the Yankees 107.65 runs this season, or 9.9 Wins. That's the difference between 100 wins and playoff bound or 90 wins and golf bound in October.

How Good is Brett Gardner's Eye?

I've decided to put some numbers up to back up my feelings about Brett Gardner and his inability to swing the bat at strikes. There may be some stats that you're unfamiliar here, so I've posted the Fangraphs.com Glossary for Plate Discipline, as well as the major league averages below:

O-Swing% is the percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone. Can be referred to as his "Chase Rate"

Z-Swing% is the percentage of pitches swung at inside the strike zone

Swing% is the overall percentage of pitches swung at

O-Contact% is the percentage of pitches swung at and contacted outside the strike zone

Z-Contact % is the percentage of pitches swung at and contacted inside the strike zone

Contact% is the overall percentage of balls when swung at contact was made

F-Strike% is the percentage of first pitch strikes

SwgStr% is the percentage of pitches a batter swings and misses on.

Brett Gardner

On the surface, Brett Gardner looks like a Bobby Abreu protege (without any power). Since 2010, Brett has shown off his great eye for pitches, posting the 2nd lowest chase rate in baseball at 18.1%

His ability to make contact with pitches is also astonishing, as he makes contact with 97.2% with pitches in the strike zone, behind only Juan Pierre and Marco Scutaro. Of the 2789 pitches Brett has seen since the start of 2010, he has only swung and missed at 265 pitches.

Where Brett Gardner lacks is in his ability to swing at pitches inside the strike zone. Over the last two seasons, Brett has swung at a major league low 45.2% of pitches in the strike zone. He owns this record almost 6% (next lowest is Elvis Andrus at 50.9%) and is almost 20% below the league average. Combined with his low chase rates, its only natural also that Brett has the lowest swing rate in MLB at 31.3%, compared to the league average of 45.6%

Here's where things get really interesting. In 2010, Brett Gardner saw 2625 pitches. Of those pitches, 48.3% were in the strike zone, or 1268 strikes. At a 44.7% Z-Swing%, that means last season, Brett Gardner took 701 pitches for strikes. while swinging at 567 strikes. Brett had a Z-Contact% of 97.5%, meaning he only swung and missed at 2.5% of these strikes. That means that after 2625 pitches, Brett only swung and missed at 14 strikes in the strike zone.

Looking at his O-Swing% (Chase Rate) , of the 1357 possible balls thrown to Brett, he swung at 18.2% of them, or 247 pitches. At (1-O-Contact%) he missed 25.2% of these pitches, or 62 times.

In total he swung and missed at 76 pitches in 2010.

Brett Gardner struck out 101 times in 2010. Of these 101K's, 56 were swinging. 56! That means that in 2010, of the 701 pitches Brett took for strikes, 656 of them were for strike 1 or strike 2. Considering he only had 569 PA in 2010, he took 1.16 strikes per plate appearance before taking Strike 3.

But aren't there times where a hitter is trying to "take a pitch"? That is true, most singles hitters don't swing in 3-0 counts, since a walk is just as good. In 2010, Brett ran the count to 3-0 31 times. 8 times he walked on the 4th pitch and hit no balls in play, so we're going to assume for Brett's sake, he took one strike (non-swinging) in the other 23 PA.

To give Brett a further benefit of the doubt, lets say he had the same strategy at 3-1. In 3-1 counts, Brett had 29 BB and 2 H in 84 PAs. Again, assuming he didn't swing at a single pitch at 3-1 other than his 2 hits, Brett took 53 strikes in 3-1 counts.

Therefore, the maximum number of strikes Brett could have taken in 3-0 and 3-1 counts is 76. Lets go back to our 656 non strike 3 strikes and back out the max 76 strikes taken. He still took 580 strikes in 569 plate appearance. Even accounting for strikes taken in 3-0 or 3-1 counts to try to get on base, Brett Gardner takes just over 1 Strike per PA before taking Strike 3.

Pitchers this season sense understand that Brett refuses to swing before 2 strikes and are currently throwing Brett a first pitch strike at a 70.5% rate, up from 56.2% last season. Brett, having only put the ball in play 4 times (1/3, 1 2B, 1 Sac Bunt) has run a 0-1 count 25 times, after which point he is a career .224 hitter, and a .136 hitter this season. If he is to see success in really his 2nd full season in the big leagues, he needs to get his bat off his shoulders and start putting the bat on the ball early in the count, because at the moment, he's giving away 1/3 of the at bat before he even steps into the box, and pitchers have no reason to pitch around him with his weak power stroke and the currently struggling and very double play prone Derek Jeter hitting behind him.

Rain Rain go Away

Haven't been neglecting the blog or the team, my last two home games (last Wed and last night) have been postponed due to rain.

Another yuck day in the Northeast, but hopefully a game will be played tonight. MLB can call themselves the goat on this one for scheduling 19 home games in the month of April, and only 9 in the month of August

Liveblogging the Yankee-Red Sox Home Opener

5:10 PM Papelbon blows through the top of order, a chant of "Yankees Suck" from the soon to be 1-6 Red Sox tries to hit the field, but is then put to rest by a pop up from Texiera. Thanks for joining me today, and let's see if we can take two of three this weekend.

4:50 PM A poor outing from Boone Logan again has turned this game into a 9-6 affair. 3 outs left for the Yankees as Robertson pitches in the bottom of the 8th. The dream of an 0-9 Red Sox is dying.

4:31 PM Adrian Gonzalez shows off his power by bunting for a single against the shift. A-Rod attempts to airmail the ball into the seats for no reason at all.

4:30 PM Manny Ramirez announces his retirement 6 days into the 2011 season. Manny was booed at home during the Rays winless home-stand and he decided he no longer wants to take female fertility drugs anymore to mask his steroid use. Manny will be missed.

4:26 PM Can we take a moment to discuss Bobby Jenks and his bleached goatee? He's no stranger to coloring his facial hair apparently as discovered in this old photo of him as a White Sox. What a goon. Also, he's at least a B-cup.

4:06 PM Brett Gardner, after reading my liveblog in the first inning no doubt, swung at the first pitch in his 2nd AB to hit a double. This at bat he takes ball 1, ball 2, takes strike 1, and strike 2, and then decides to start waving the bat. Works the walk right before Jeter grounds weakly into the double play.

3:57 PM Re-ordered the liveblog for better refreshing purposes. Good to see #91 back on the field even if it is in the wrong uniform. Almost gives up a cheapie down the line to Granderson. Surprised that the mop-up pitcher is in during a 1-run lead in the 6th inning.

3:53 PM Red Sox winning 7-6, and despite the bomb hit by Salty, he really should've been out of this inning already. Here's to the hope that Tex redeems himself at the plate.

3:47 PM Double play ball rolls under Texiera's glove. Colon escapes part of the trouble getting a harmless pop out from J.D Drew, 2 out, 1st and 3rd.

3:36 PM A-Rod's 5th career home run against Lackey leaves in a hurry. 2nd row on top of the Green Monster, Carl Crawford never even moved. And just like that, we're tied at 6, and Lackey is STILL in the game!

3:33 PM I'm not seeing things, Bartolo just got through ANOTHER 1,2,3 inning. That's 4 scoreless innings in a row since his last outing against Detroit. I'm not ready to eat crow yet, but Colon is definitely looking great here in Boston.

3:23 PM Yankees still showing strong at bats against Lackey. A great diving play by Crawford is the only thing keeping this Red Sox lead right now as Gardner laces a 2 out triple down the line and Jeter laces a 2 out single to center. Advances to 2nd on a wild pitch. Aceves is warming in the pen for Boston. Aceves looked like he was wearing street clothes underneath his uniform during pre-game introductions so we'll see if he actually came to the ballpark ready to pitch or not.

3:13 PM Just had to check my television signal. Side-tracked at the office, but I'm pretty sure Fartolo Colon just retired the Red Sox in order to end the 3rd. Is it because the bullpen at Fenway is closer to the mound than at Yankee Stadium so he's not exhausted? Whatever it is, he's nibbling his way back toward redemption with innings like that.

3:04 PM Questionable check-swing strike-out for Tex, A-Rod HBP to the delight of the crowd followed by a Cano double and a groundout-RBI for Swisher. Boston leads 6-4, Lackey at 55 pitches.

2:56 PM Youklis gets gunned down in a bad base-running play. Merciful reprieve for Phil Hughes. Someone needs to be warming up in the pen Joe, Phil just does not have it today.

2:51 PM Had to make a quick run and listen to this game on the radio. 5-3 Boston on the hit parade against Hughes. Fastball is flat, straight, and not missing bats. Freddy Garcia should be warming in the pen.

2:25 PM Pedroia answers with a solo home run, 2-1. Announcers making a big fuss already about Hughes' fastball.

2:17 PM Cano with a Griffey-like cut at a fat pitch in the middle of the plate. Yanks up 2-0, boo birds rain down on Lackey.

2:14 PM Breaking balls to A-Rod on 3-0 and 3-1 from Lackey. The fear is there.

2:06 PM Brett Gardner takes strike 1. Brett Gardner has taken strike 1 now 14 of 19 plate appearances without swinging. Least favorite thing about Gardner is his inability to swing at the ball. Led the league last year in qualifying players, only swinging at 45% of pitches in the strike zone. After 0-1 counts, Gardner is an .077 hitter this year and a .226 hitter for his career.

1:45 PM Red Sox introduction time! I've been waiting to hear fan reaction to how bad this team has played so far.

Francona: Gets a cheer. Guess they don't blame the skip for 0-6

Bard: A few boos in the crowd, not nearly enough for a guy who's 0-2.

Crawford: Gets a loud cheer, who are these Red Sox fans? They're not holding anyone accountable.

These jerks even cheer John Lackey in the pen. Why didn't cheer Javier Vazquez, don't fool yourself Boston. Guess we're just going to have to wait till Crawford goes 0-4 and Lackey gets knocked out early to start hearing the boos.

1:43 PM New scoreboards in Fenway park. A sad sign that they won't tear this park down.

1:40 PM Yankee introductions, reserve players and Yankee staff. A.J Burnett, Bartolo Colon, C.C Sabathia, Joe Giradi, Mark Texiera, A-Rod receive loud boos. Jeter and Cano get mixed receptions. Rivera gets a loud cheer.