Enforcing Home-field Advantage and Keeping the Winning Tradition Alive

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Assigning Blame in Boston

Some Boston fans are asking me if I worry about the Yanks blowing a 7-0 lead in the 8th inning for the first time since 1954. Frankly, no.

Now looking at the Red Sox, its time to start issuing blame and whether or not people should be brought back.

Tito: Terry Francona needs to go. As the team started crumbling in September, a coaching staff and its players needs to look to its manager to find a way to win. Instead, Terry sent out Wakefield for 4 starts, Weiland for 3 starts, and Andrew Miller for 2. Meanwhile the team's best option to start any of these games was Alfredo Aceves, who was used primarily in games in which the Red Sox were already losing and looking to keep it close. Getting ahead of a team early and then piling runs on against the weaker relievers was the Sox strength this season, (32-17 in blowout games, similar to the Yankees 34-13). Continually allowing yourself to start behind and then try to cobble comebacks against a team's core relief squad and closers is a recipe for disaster.

Outside of handling the pitching staff, his lineup choices down the stretch were simply baffling. A manager cannot cannot CANNOT bat a guy with only 39 career at bats behind your team's best hitter. Buck Showalter and the Oriole coaching staff prepped themselves for Lavarnway for his second career start, and chose to intentionally walk Adrian Gonzalez 3 times in favor of pitching to the rookie catcher. In turn, he went 0-5 and stockpiled a -.275 Win Probability Added for the game (basically you could attribute 28% of the loss directly on him).

Finally, Carl Crawford was a star, and brought in to spark the top of the lineup, steal bases, and hit doubles off the Green Monster. Seven days into the season, he was demoted to 7th in the lineup and was allowed to languish in a season-long slump from which he would never recover. The Yankees had a player like that, his name was Curtis Granderson. Rather than abandoning the project in the 8th hole, the Yankees gave him the support he needed to refine his swing against left-handed pitching and now is a favorite for the AL MVP.

Theo: See reasoning above. Terry didn't have many options to go with from a pitching standpoint, and that was thanks to Theo a) not acquiring Doug Fister, Bruce Chen, or any other mediocre pitcher from June-September, and b) saddling the team with John Lackey and Dice-K in the first place. By acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, he essentially forced Youklis to play out of position and cause the injuries that kept him out of the lineup in September. Not to mention the Crawford/Jenks/Drew/Scutaro contracts. Better for him to start off fresh in Chicago and pretend like he didn't torpedo this organization into the ground.

Crawford: For $17m a season, according to fangraphs.com he actually cost the team 2.4 wins this season, 5th worst in baseball. He took 14 runs off the scoreboard according to his RE24, and despite playing in the smallest left field in baseball, he managed to put up a defensive year only slightly better than Manny's 2003 campaign. Translation: He had a worse year than Brett Gardner at the plate, but at least Brett Gardner can catch the ball. Fitting the season ended on a ball he should've caught. He needs to go, but odds are he's stuck in Boston for the duration of that contract.

Curt Young: No pitching coach should keep his job after that kind of a month.

Unfortunately I think the Sox will be back next year. What's worse is that they'll bid up the price of CC Sabathia for the Yankees to repay us for the Carl Crawford deal. They'll sign C.J Wilson out of free agency and pick up a RH bat to man RF to give the lineup some depth against LHP and the prognosticators at ESPN will once again anoint them to be the favorites to win it all next season.

I can't wait.

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